T.R.A.N.S.F.O.R.M.A.T.I.O.N. is spelled ELLIOTT.

Southwest is in their Activist Era and I Called It - Oh and the FAA / Government Shutdown

We will get to Elliott and Southwest Airlines in a moment…

But, everyone is asking me about the government shut down and the fact that the FAA and DOT have directed airlines to reduce their schedules at 40 domestic airports starting November 7.

Frankly… this is still about people. When you remove flights, you remove the labor attached to those flights: ramp, gate, ops, support, crew. And right now, the internal workforce data is already trending squishy.

The latest job activity chart tells the real story:

• Job starts have slowed significantly since May.

• Job ends (layoffs, attrition, contracts expiring) are outpacing starts nearly every month through Q3.

• That imbalance shows up in roles tied to operations, sales, engineering, and business support… the exact pressure points hit hardest when flight schedules shrink.

For Southwest, that’s a problem. Not existential, but operational. Their transformation plan relies on stable core headcount and lean peripheral staffing. When the FAA removes 10% of the schedule from hubs like LAS, LAX, or SEA, those labor plans get put to the test.

Bottom line:

You can fly lean.

But not when the airport’s on pause.

And International? How’s that looking? Let’s just say Southwest is threading a needle most airlines won’t even touch.

A new interline deal, $1.5B in fresh debt, and a very specific kind of workforce setup that tells me… they’re gearing up for something bigger. It’s all below.